On January 6, 2021, the price of pulp futures went up and up, with the highest point at 5960 yuan / ton. The spot market price rose with the market, and the attention of the industry continued to rise.
In terms of the specific situation, there is a slight contraction in the supply side, the increment in the demand side is limited, and there are many favorable supports in the macro side.
On the supply side, in the first 11 months of 2020, the import volume of China's softwood pulp decreased by 1.52%, with the main regions and ports sorting out the pulp inventory range; from the global shipping data, the global softwood pulp shipping volume decreased by 5.2% in November, in which the volume shipped to China decreased by 9.6%, and the inventory days calculated by standard method decreased by 1 day compared with last month, so the overall supply side was slightly tight. On the demand side, the cost side of household paper passively pushed up, while the second round of price increase stimulated the stock of base paper to a narrow range, which was better than supporting the pulp market. In terms of policy, under the influence of zero import of waste paper at the end of the year, the raw material gap of packaging paper stimulates domestic and foreign pulp mills to switch to native color pulp, indirectly supporting the price of softwood pulp. From a macro point of view, bullish news such as the completion of China EU investment agreement negotiations, inflation expectations and vaccines supported the pulp market.
1、 At present, there are more favorable news about the rise of external market, policy and sea freight, which support the pulp market. Will the supply side of the pulp market continue to shrink in the later stage?
The late supply of softwood pulp is relatively tight, which is conducive to supporting the late pulp market
According to the incomplete statistical data of Zhuo Chuang information, in 2021 and beyond, the new pulp production capacity in the world will exceed 45 million tons. After removing dissolving pulp, waste pulp and semi chemical pulp, it will also exceed 40 million tons (including long-term shutdown in the early stage, and planned production capacity in the near future and later stage). Broadleaf pulp and chemical mechanical pulp are the main products, accounting for 66% of the market share.
As listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, bleached kraft softwood pulp accounts for 11% of the total new pulp production capacity, mainly distributed in Canada, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Germany and other major pulp producing countries. In 2021, almost no new coniferous pulp production capacity will be put in. In 2022, the new coniferous pulp production capacity will account for 6.42% of the total new pulp production capacity in 2022. Although the new coniferous pulp production capacity in 2023 and after will account for 10% of the total new pulp production capacity, the new production capacity of Finland and Russia is still in the plan and has not yet been implemented. According to Zhuo Chuang information analysis, from the above data, the new production capacity of softwood pulp in the next 1-2 years is less, and the new production capacity in the next 3-5 years is more uncertain. On the whole, the late supply of softwood pulp is relatively tight, which is conducive to the later pulp market.