In the first four months, paper profits surged sevenfold year over year, signaling that the paper industry is on a trajectory of stabilization and improvement.

After years of rapid growth and technological upgrading, China’s paper industry has risen to the ranks of the world’s leading paper-producing nations. How to build a new type of productive forces and promote the industry’s sustainable development has become a key topic of discussion.

According to data from the China Paper Association, in 2023 the pulp and paper industry, including paper and paperboard products, produced a total of 291.39 million tons, up 2.63% year on year. The sector’s total operating revenue reached RMB 1.39 trillion, down 2.39% compared with the previous year, while its aggregate profit amounted to RMB 50.8 billion, an increase of 4.39% year on year. From January to April 2024, the industry has shown further signs of stabilizing and improving.

“The hallmark of new‑type productive forces is innovation; their key lies in high quality, and their essence is advanced productivity,” said Cao Chunyu, President of the China Paper Association, at the “2024 China Paper Industry Sustainable Development Forum” held on June 20. He noted that China’s paper industry still grapples with issues such as being large in scale but weak in strength, having abundant scientific and technological achievements yet lacking depth, and dispersing innovation efforts without sufficient cohesion. To address these challenges, the industry should leverage technological innovation and industrial transformation and upgrading to build new‑type productive forces, striving to achieve the targets of 140 million tons of national paper and cardboard production by 2025 and 170 million tons by 2035.

The medium- and long-term goals for the paper industry have been clearly defined.

“The paper industry is a vital foundational raw-materials sector, providing functional basic materials for industry, agriculture, science and technology, and national defense, while also supplying consumer goods that enrich people’s culture and daily lives. Per capita paper consumption is an important indicator of a country’s economic and cultural strength,” said Zhao Wei, Chairman of the China Paper Association, at the forum. He added that the modern paper industry has evolved into a technology-intensive field, encompassing a wide range of technological domains, and continues to offer substantial room for further growth.

Zhao Wei explained that China’s current per capita paper consumption stands at just over 90 kilograms annually, whereas the average per capita consumption in typical middle‑income developed countries ranges from 120 to 150 kilograms, and in fully developed nations it generally exceeds 200 kilograms. If China were to reach the level of a middle‑income developed country—achieving a per capita consumption of 120 kilograms—the demand for paper would amount to at least 170 million tonnes; at 150 kilograms per person, total demand would climb to 190 million tonnes. “At present, total consumption is only 130 million tonnes, so, from a theoretical standpoint, the industry still has considerable room for growth.”

According to data from the China Paper Association, in 2023, China’s production of paper and cardboard reached 129.65 million tonnes, up 4.35% year on year, while consumption totaled 131.65 million tonnes, an increase of 6.14% compared with the previous year. Pulp production stood at 88.23 million tonnes, up 2.75% year on year, with consumption at 118.99 million tonnes, a rise of 5.35%. Paper product output was 73.51 million tonnes, down 0.38% year on year, and consumption fell to 68.23 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.07%.

“From January to April this year, the paper industry saw increases in both output and overall sales. Paper‑related profits have rebounded from last year’s slump, rising sevenfold,” revealed Zhao Wei. During the first four months of the year, the sector produced 6.06 million tonnes of pulp, 49.72 million tonnes of paper, and 21.37 million tonnes of paper products. The first two categories posted year‑on‑year growth rates exceeding 14%, while revenue and profit for the latter two also expanded compared with the same period last year.

According to the Paper Industry’s 14th Five-Year Plan and its medium- to long-term high-quality development framework, by 2025, national total output of paper and cardboard is expected to reach 140 million tonnes (with per capita consumption at 100 kg), primary pulp production will stand at 30 million tonnes, and paper product output will total 90 million tonnes. By 2035, total paper and cardboard output is projected to rise to 170 million tonnes (with per capita consumption exceeding 120 kg), with primary pulp accounting for more than 30% of the total, and paper product output reaching 120 million tonnes.

Zhao Wei stated that the paper industry is sustainable, owing to its green attributes and circular‑economy characteristics. Currently in China, nearly 60% of the industry’s raw materials come from recycled paper, and much of the wood used is derived from residues and secondary materials generated by wood‑processing plants. Moreover, the paper sector has achieved highly sophisticated treatment of solid, gaseous, and liquid waste, making it a fully modernized industry.

Nearly 80% of virgin wood pulp raw materials are imported.

The Economic Herald reporter learned that Shandong Province holds a pivotal position in China’s papermaking industry.

Professor Chen Jiachuan, former president of Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences) and director of the State Key Laboratory of Bio-based Materials and Green Papermaking, told a reporter from Economic Guide that Shandong is both China’s leading paper-producing province and a major pulp‑producing region. In 2023, five leading enterprises—Sun Paper, Chenming Paper, Shandong Bohui, and others—combined for a total paper output of 23.6 million tons, accounting for 18.2% of the national total. Meanwhile, the combined pulp production of Shandong’s top five pulp producers reached 11.25 million tons, precisely half of the country’s total pulp output.

However, China’s paper industry also faces a severe shortage of resources. According to Chen Jiachuan, it is impossible to rely entirely on waste paper pulp; waste paper pulp accounts for roughly 60%, leaving a 40% gap that must be filled with virgin pulp. Last year, domestic woodchip pulping totaled 10.4 million tons, while imported woodchip pulping reached 12 million tons. Imported wood pulp amounted to 26.84 million tons, and the combined total of imported pulp and pulp produced from imported wood chips was 38.84 million tons—representing 78.8% of the country’s total virgin wood pulp output of 49.31 million tons, underscoring a very high degree of external dependence.

Cao Chunyu stated that China’s paper industry continues to grapple with both cyclical and localized overcapacity, while also confronting sluggish growth in exports of traditional light‑industry products. Consequently, it can no longer rely on the same pattern as in the past—where increases in total export value drove growth in paper and cardboard consumption.

In the realm of scientific and technological innovation, Cao Chunyu noted that since 2009, China has ranked first globally in both paper production and sales, accounting for more than one-quarter of the world’s total output. However, its advantages in fiber raw materials, advanced equipment, and high-performance materials remain limited. While China boasts a large volume of scientific and technological achievements, their quality is often lacking; according to statistical analyses by the industry’s science and technology community, only 10% to 30% of cutting-edge innovations are actually applied in production, and among these, merely 20% have been successfully commercialized into full-fledged industries.

“There are still relatively few initiatives that can genuinely give back to and drive technological progress in the industry, or effectively enhance both corporate economic performance and technological capabilities,” said Cao Chunyu. He noted that innovation in the paper‑making sector remains fragmented rather than consolidated, with enterprises lacking a clear leading role. Nearly a hundred universities, research institutes, design firms, and nationally recognized technology centers tend to operate in isolation, resulting in weak integration, collaboration, and innovation.

Green–Intelligent Integration to Build New-Generation Productive Forces

In response to the opportunities and challenges confronting the paper industry, industry experts and corporate executives have also put forward a range of strategic responses.

Chen Jiachuan believes that, in terms of raw materials, the utilization of agricultural residues represents a key direction. In Shandong, the Century Sunshine project has established a 200,000‑ton per year bio‑mechanical pulp production line using wheat straw and other crop residues, which has now been completed and put into operation. However, fundamental research on pulping from straw remains relatively weak, with no major breakthroughs achieved; original, game‑changing technologies are still scarce. Moreover, the quality of straw pulp is inconsistent and unstable, and its drainage performance is poor, thereby limiting its range of applications.

Efficient utilization of fiber resources based on a papermaking platform is also a promising area of focus. According to Chen Jiachuan, establishing an integrated platform for refining agricultural and forestry biomass into pulp and paper can significantly enhance resource utilization. For instance, in agricultural and forestry residues, cellulose can be used not only for papermaking but also to produce nanocellulose and derivatives of dissolving pulp; lignin can be burned to recover thermal energy or converted into other products, with applications such as adhesives proving particularly effective.

Cao Chunyu recommends that the entire industry pool its resources and intensify collaborative innovation in bamboo‑based pulping and papermaking technologies and equipment—covering areas such as tissue culture for specialized bamboo varieties, systematic development of cultivation techniques, the design of dedicated machinery for harvesting, storage, and transportation, and the transformation of business models. In terms of scientific and technological advancement, enterprises should assume a leading and driving role, proactively identify key challenges, boldly experiment, and ensure that research findings and achievements are grounded in practical, tangible applications.

Professor Liu Huanbin, former president of South China University of Technology, stated at the forum that intelligent manufacturing is a key component of new‑type productive forces, representing a novel mode of production born from the deep integration of next‑generation information technologies with the papermaking and traditional industries. For the papermaking industry to achieve sustainable development, both green practices and intelligentization are indispensable. It is essential to pool resources from multiple stakeholders—businesses, government, and civil society—to accelerate the transition toward intelligent manufacturing.

“Within this context, how should industrial intelligence technologies for the papermaking industry be developed? And once these technologies are in place, how can they be put into practical use? It is through application that we refine and iterate—entrepreneurs must take the lead,” said Liu Huanbin.

At the forum, Zhai Jingli, Vice President of APP (China) under the Jinguang Group, stated that enterprises are not only key players in the market economy but also the primary drivers of technological innovation. To empower development through innovation, companies should foster new‑type productive forces by deepening the integration of cutting‑edge technologies with the real economy, accelerating the commercialization of scientific and technological breakthroughs, and strengthening collaborative innovation across the entire value chain, thereby achieving sustainable, high‑quality growth for both enterprises and industries.

It is reported that, as a leading enterprise in the paper industry, APP (China), part of the Sinar Mas Group, has advanced the intelligent, green, and high‑end transformation of its operations by fostering deep integration between cutting‑edge technologies and traditional manufacturing. For example, the Rudong mill leverages advanced technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, and “Industry 4.0 plus artificial intelligence,” while deploying world‑class automated production data systems and automated equipment—including AGVs, RGVs, and RFID—to seamlessly integrate papermaking, processing, and logistics. This approach enables data‑driven decision‑making, modular management, and fully automated production, ultimately achieving end‑to‑end digitalization across the entire supply chain—from suppliers through pulp and paper mills to customers—and reducing overall workshop energy consumption by 25%.